Oscar Predictions: 2015 Edition!!!!

Well, here it is! The moment you (I'm sure) have been waiting for! Last year, I did this list and successfully predicted every category except for two (Best Documentary Short and Sound Mixing I think) so I'd say, you know, that I'm a pretty big deal. Anyway, we are going to go with the same system as we did last year: I'll give you each category, the Vegas prediction, (which is almost always right at this point-the link to the site I'm using is here) and then who I think deserves the category. Now, there's a lot of controversy surrounding this year's Oscars and the nominations included on it, and if you want my take on the controversy and others click here, but this list is just an analysis of the picks that the Academy made. Mostly. So, are ya ready? Let's go!

Writing: Original Screenplay
Who deserves it: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Who's the favorite: Birdman
This is a tough category, as it seems the Academy (aka Vegas) is split pretty evenly between Birdman and GBH. Even for me, the category is pretty much a tossup between GBH, Nightcrawler, and Boyhood. But, if you note there, I did not say Birdman. While Birdman's story was good, it didn't quite do it for me. To me, that film was great because of the acting and the cinematography, not necessarily because of a gripping story. But seriously....this is one of the hardest categories for me to pick from, because I LOVED Nightcrawler. And Boyhood. I really feel that the Academy totally forgot about Nightcrawler, which is why I would want to give this award to it, despite the fact that I feel GBH had a better screenplay. Think of it as a make-up call for the far larger oversights on Nightcrawler in other categories. But I'm not gonna think like that. At the end of the day, GBH definitely had the best original screenplay last year, so I would ultimately give the award to them. Boy, that was confusing. Hopefully the other categories will be a bit easier....

Writing: Adapted Screenplay
Who deserves it: Whiplash
Who's the favorite: The Imitation Game
This is another close category, as Vegas is pretty torn between The Imitation Game and Whiplash. I'd give the award to Whiplash, because it was originally based off a short that was the first interaction between J.K. Simmons' character and Miles Teller's character and the movie did an incredible job building off of that, but I can understand the Academy giving the award to The Imitation Game. Why? Because Whiplash's source material is incredibly limited, to the point that I was a little surprised it was even in this category. I honestly think you could make the argument that the film should be in the Original Screenplay category, because only about 15 minutes of it is based off of something. The rest is all original content. But anyway, I really felt that the best adapted screenplay of the year as a whole was Wild, but, you know, it's not even nominated. Good job Academy. So, give it to Whiplash! Because Whiplash seriously deserves everything it's nominated for.

Visual Effects
Who deserves it: Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
Who's the favorite: Interstellar
Remember Dawn of the Planet of the Apes? That movie really got lost in the whole summer blockbuster season, but what they did with Caesar was incredible. The crew that made the movie deserves the award just for the CGI work with Andy Serkis alone. You want to know how good Caesar looked? There was a legitimate movement out there to give Caesar (not Andy Serkis) a nomination for Best Supporting Actor. A group of people actually thought that. And they're not crazy! After watching all the performances I can definitely tell you that Caesar was better than Robert Duvall in The Judge. But the greatness of Caesar definitely began with the visual effects department. The Academy can at least make up for this lack of acting nomination by giving the movie the Best Visuals award. Because it definitely deserves it.

Sound Mixing
Who deserves it: Whiplash
Who's the favorite: American Sniper
Vegas has no idea about this category. American Sniper is the favorite at 13-8, but then Interstellar comes in at 5-2, and Whiplash is not far behind at 11-4. Oh, and Birdman is only at 3-1. So.....ya! But personally again, I think Whiplash deserves it. There's some marvelous sound mixing in there between the various instruments, while still doing a great job to highlight Teller's drums throughout all the musical portions. I was very impressed by how technically sound and visually spectacular the movie was in addition to its gripping story. Whiplash is just the definition of a perfect movie, guys. But as a music nerd myself, I really thought the balancing in Whiplash was spot-on. However, if the Academy give the nod to American Sniper I would understand. After all, if American Sniper wins nothing Oscar night the right is going to go CRAZY.

Sound Editing
Who deserves it: American Sniper
Who's the favorite: American Sniper
That said, here's the award I would personally give American Sniper. I will definitely say the sound of American Sniper was the best part of that movie, so I would not hesitate to give this award to Clint Eastwood and crew and move on. Done and done. But seriously, this is a bit of a week category this year, as no one really stood out like Gravity did last year. This is why I'd give this award to American Sniper. I guess Interstellar had a few good moments, but given the fact that the movie took place in space, there was a shockingly small amount of liberties taken with the sound throughout the movie. Interstellar should've run away with this award, as any movie about space should, but because it was borderline lazy in the sound department, I would not award them with anything in this field. Shame on you, Interstellar. You should've been so much better! 'Murica.

Short Film (Live Action)
Who deserves it: N/A
Who's the favorite: The Phone Call
So I haven't seen any of the shorts this year (besides for Feast in the animated short department) because the Academy likes to copyright all of them the second they nominate them for their individual categories. And then profit off of them by releasing them in theaters! Even though I can't actually find them in any theaters? I don't know it's weird. But, from the research I did on the category, The Phone Call is a rather heavy favorite to win the category. It's been emotionally wrecking audiences over the course of 2014 at various film festivals, as Sally Hawkins (apparently) brings her A game for a 20 minute short. I have every intention of watching this once it gets released again, but until then I'll take Vegas's word that it's going to win the category.

Short Film (Animated)
Who deserves it: Feast
Who's the favorite: Feast
While I've only seen this short from this category, I think it's safe to assume that the Disney-Pixar short is going to win the category. They basically always do. And, once again, the Disney-Pixar short is the overwhelming Vegas favorite to win the category. Plus there's an adorable dog. 'Nuff said.

Production Design
Who deserves it: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Who's the favorite: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Well, this is another easy category. The attention to detail Wes Anderson put into this film is absolutely astounding. Every single item on the set was meticulously placed by Wes and his crew. Easily the best production design of 2014, I have every confidence that GBH will pull this one out by a landslide.

Original Song
Who deserves it: Glory (Selma)
Who's the favorite: Glory (Selma)
Ahhhhh the make-up call category. Basically the two frontrunners here are from the snubs Selma and The Lego Movie (The Boxtrolls????) So a vote for either is basically a guilt-vote. However, you can't give this award to Everything is Awesome. That....that would basically be giving into the satire that the song is supposed to be. It would be ironic, ok? Super duper ironic. However, Glory is still a pretty good song. Not the best song of last year (I'd give it to Lana Del Rey's Big Eyes personally if I could) but it's still an excellent song. And given the fact that it looks like Selma is not going to win Best Picture, you have to give it something. So, here's another make-up call from the Oscars! Woo!

Original Score
Who deserves it: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Who's the favorite: The Theory of Everything
Fun fact: 2014 was not a good year for original scores if your name was not Alexander Desplat. There really wasn't any music that really stood out this past year short of GBH and The Imitation Game. (Both Desplat scores nominated for this category.) The score of GBH was simplistic in style, yet very elegant in its delivery. Did you like that? I thought that sounded intelligent! But seriously, I really enjoyed the score of GBH while I was watching this film. It, The Imitation Game, and Interstellar were about the only three scores that were super memorable from 2014, and Interstellar was memorable in a not-so-good way. (After all, that score was so loud that it even overpowered some of the dialogue in the movie.) But, Alexander Desplat is one of the best up-and-coming composers in Hollywood, and he's here to stay. Actually, take a look at that man's IMDB page. He's not up-and-coming. He's already here, as he's been nominated for 8 Oscars since 2007, including the two this year. Though he's never won one, this will very likely change this year. Also, can I just say....The Theory of Everything's score sucks. It really should not win this category, so I have noooooo idea why Vegas seems to think it will. Get it together, guys!

Makeup and Hairstyling
Who deserves it: Guardians of the Galaxy
Who's the favorite: The Grand Budapest Hotel
This has always been a weird category to me. Why are there always only three nominations for makeup and hairstyling? Well, in years past there's often one heavy favorite and the other two nominees are throwaway nominations. Because, you know, no other films besides these three asked their makeup crews and hairstylists to do anything. Right? Well, again this year, Grand Budapest Hotel is a pretty heavy favorite, but honestly I think Guardians did a better job in this department than they did. Not by much, but I really think these superhero movies deserve a bit more recognition that they've received from the Academy since Nolan's Batman franchise modernized the genre, and I think giving Guardians a deserving makeup award would be the perfect way to acknowledge that. And, the makeup and hairstyling in that film is incredible. One of the more overlooked parts of the film. C'mon Academy, I believe in you!

Foreign Language Film
Who deserves it: N/A
Who's the favorite: Tie between Ida and Leviathan 
This category is a toss-up in Vegas. Always is. I've only seen Leviathan, but I can tell you that this movie is an incredible film, and definitely worth the watch. That said, I've also heard good things about Ida. So I can't really judge one way or another. We'll see who wins come Oscar night!

Film Editing
Who deserves it: Whiplash
Who's the favorite: Boyhood
So Whiplash. Starting to see a trend here, ya? Look. I get the challenge that comes with Boyhood and editing together 12 years of footage in this film. I get it. But Whiplash....the editing in that is some of the best I've ever seen. The style this film is cut together with.....it's exactly what I would think of when I think of jazz. With its frantic cuts between different parts of the drums during solos, the editing of Whiplash made the movie even better than it already was. I will, however, say one thing about this category: why isn't Birdman nominated? Look. I get that the sensation the movie successfully creates is the sensation that it is shot in one take, but it creates this sensation with the help of some incredible editing. The editing of Birdman, to me, was almost even better than both Whiplash and Boyhood. And yet no nomination. I guess I should just tell myself that there was no editing....

Documentary Short Subject
Who deserves it: N/A
Who's the favorite: Crisis Hotline: Veteran's Press 1
Well, I don't know anything about this category. So I'm just gonna go by what Vegas is saying. Don't let me down guys!

Documentary Feature
Who deserves it: N/A
Who's the favorite: Citizenfour
Once more, I know nothing about this category. However, I do know Citizenfour is about Edward Snowden, so I'd be shocked if it didn't win. I think that's what Vegas is thinking too. Anyway. Moving on.

Costume Design
Who deserves it: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Who's the favorite: The Grand Budapest Hotel
This and the next category are two of the easier categories to predict this year. While I actually got the privilege to see Into the Woods's costumes in person when I saw the film at the El Capitan, and thus would love to say that I saw the Oscar winner clothes line, and even though Mr. Turner also had some phenomenal costumes, GBH beats them both and everyone else by a country mile. A phenomenal set of costumes. I wouldn't mind wearing some of them in everyday life because of how awesome they look. I'd honestly say go see this movie just for the production design and costume design alone if nothing else. They are both phenomenal and easy wins for the movie on Oscar night.

Cinematography
Who deserves it: Birdman
Who's the favorite: Birdman
Easy. This is basically the best cinematography I've ever seen. Emmanuel Lubezki can do no wrong. What makes Birdman so great is its one-take sensation, and this sensation is created entirely under the guidance of Lubezki. It is easily worth the cost of admission alone. Done.

Animated Feature Film
Who deserves it: Big Hero 6
Who's the favorite: How to Train Your Dragon 2
So, fun fact! Animated films really fell off my radar this year. I only saw How to Train Your Dragon 2. Fortunately, the FANtastic Peter Kosanovich saw the entire category, and is more than willing to share his thoughts on it! Peter? 

Hey guys! So, let's be completely real, this was an excellent year for animated films! All the movies were so different in their stories and visuals that it is hard to compare them. That being said, I have a feeling that things will end rather unfortunately. I say unfortunately because, while How to Train Your Dragon 2 was an excellent movie, that I do love, it feels as though it is the front-runner mainly because its predecessor lost to Toy Story 3, which was going to win the award no matter what. The three best animated movies this year were definitely Big Hero 6, Song of the Sea, and The Tale of Princess Kaguya. Each one offers something different. Big Hero 6 has the emotional connection with main character Hiro Hamada right from the beginning, with some of the best computer animation to date; Song of the Sea has that sense of childhood wonder wrapped-up in Celtic folklore, while also being one of the most visually beautiful films I have ever seen; and The Tale of Princess Kaguya is based off Japanese folklore, told by the always amazing Studio Ghibli, and created with gorgeous watercolor, traditional-style animation. Now, with all that being said, I should probably tell you who my pick to win is, which has been particularly hard to decide. Well, I'm going with Big Hero 6 for a couple reasons. First, Disney created all new software to create the animated visuals, which we can all agree are stunning; second, that story is just so good and gives you all the right feelings at all the right moments, whether it's laughs or tears; and thirdly, while both Song of the Sea and The Tale of Princess Kaguya are incredible, Big Hero 6 honestly stands the best chance of beating How to Train Your Dragon 2 for an award it really didn't quite earn this year.


Thanks Peter! I fully intend to watch Big Hero 6 in the upcoming weeks, and I'm sure I'll agree with you when I do!

Best Supporting Actress
Who deserves it: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
Who's the favorite: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
An overwhelming favorite to win this category, Patricia Arquette's 12-year long performance was incredible. They asked a lot of this actress, and even though the story shies away from her a bit in the final act, she's still a staple for the film. She's the mom! She's Hollywood's mom! I don't know if I'm ever going to be able to see her in any other film before remembering her mother performance in Boyhood. While I do think Laura Dern's performance in Wild is a close second, the Academy should have no problems giving Arquette the award.

Best Supporting Actor
Who deserves it: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Who's the favorite: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash
Easily the heaviest favorite at the Oscars this year, in my opinion, is J.K. Simmons' performance in Whiplash. A performance for the ages, Simmons is TERRIFYING as the jazz conductor. While there are about 80 million reasons you need to see this movie, the performance of J.K. Simmons should definitely be number 1. While I'm ok with this movie not winning anything else, because after all it is a tiny indie film no one has ever heard of, there is absolutely no way anyone even comes close to taking this award away from J.K. Simmons. Everyone else in the category might as well not even bother writing a speech.

Best Actress
Who deserves it: Reese Witherspoon, Wild
Who's the favorite: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
This is, for me, the toughest category from an acting standpoint this year. The performance of these two actresses were both equally phenomenal, and it is incredibly difficult to decide between either of them. At the end of the day, I think Witherspoon had a better performance, but because of Witherspoon's off-the-screen issues in recent years, Julianne Moore is a heavy HEAVY favorite to win on Oscar night according to Vegas. She's going at 1-100. That's right. Not 100-1. 1-100. Witherspoon is in second at 25-1. But I really think Witherspoon's performance in Wild was better. That movie is mostly just her, and she is asked to do sooooo much in the role. And she nails it. As good a comeback story for an actor or actress if there ever was one. While Julianne Moore for me is a close second, at the end of the day I simply think Witherspoon's performance was very close to the best overall performance of the year, and definitely the best performance by a female. I loved it, and I'll definitely be rooting for her on Oscar night. Even though Vegas is incredibly certain Moore's name is going to be called.

Best Actor
Who deserves it: Michael Keaton, Birdman
Who's the favorite: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
This is the only acting category Vegas is not sure about. Redmayne is coming in at 1-4, whereas Keaton is a close second at 3-1. That said, the selections in this category suck. Seriously! Both David Oyelowo and Jake Gyllenhaal deserved nominations over at least Bradley Cooper and, honestly, Eddie Redmayne. However, Redmayne's performance is what the business calls "quantifiable acting" as you can literally see Redmayne's transformation as Steven Hawking occur in front of you on screen.  The Academy digs that sort of thing. Last year, the Academy gave this award to Matthew McConaughey in Dallas Buyers Club, another "quantifiable acting" performance. That's the only reason why Redmayne is the favorite to win the award. That said, Michael Keaton has been a favorite of mine for a long time, and it is so great to see him make as strong a comeback as this performance (while simultaneously creating a parody of himself) in Birdman. Even though these choices suck, to me Keaton's performance is the easy choice from them. Even though I should also mention that Redmayne took home the award from the Actor's Guild Awards the other day. The Actor's Guild (who also votes for this category) has successfully predicted the eventual Best Actor winner for the last 10 straight years. So, the odds are stacked against Keaton. Also sorry, Benedict Cumberbatch. Your time will come. (For those of you who don't know, FUN FACT: I have a total bromance with Benedict Cumberbatch. He's so dreamy....)

Best Director
Who deserves it: Richard Linklater, Boyhood
Who's the favorite: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu, Birdman
I still have NO idea why Ava DuVernay did not receive the first ever African American woman nomination in this category for her work in Selma. Grrrrrr. Still salty. That said, to me, this choice is an easy one. What Linklater did in Boyhood was simply amazing. Boyhood is his masterpiece, his brainchild, and entirely a result of his creativity and ingenuity. And for the longest time Vegas agreed with me. However, in the last week or so, Inarittu has received a HUGE boost in that town when he surprised everyone and took home the Director's Guild award for Best Director. Which is typically a good predictor as to who is gonna win the award on Oscar night. That said, I really don't see how you can give the award to Inarittu. Everyone is talking about the long shot sensation of this film, but chances are Inarittu had very little to do with the process of creating this. The single-shot sensation was created by Lubezki. I'd say Inarittu had a say in it, but the style was so so similar to Lubezki's last project, Gravity, that I really don't think he did anything more than say, "Ya, that looks good." However, the 12-year production cycle of Boyhood was ran and maintained almost entirely by Linklater. And that reason is why I think he deserves it over Inarittu. Honestly, I'd even give the award to Wes Anderson before I gave it to Inarittu. But that's just me. 

Best Picture
Who deserves it: Boyhood
Who's the favorite: Birdman
Well, we've come to it at last. Best picture. This is an incredibly close battle between Boyhood and Birdman according to Vegas. Right now, Birdman is going at 8-15 and Boyhood is going at 11-8. However it feels like these numbers are changing hourly. But, at the end of the day, I'd give the coveted award to Boyhood. The production cycle of that film was crazy, but it wasn't just that. The story of this film and how it is told is also incredible. In my review, which you can see here, I called this film a storytelling masterpiece. Not because of what actually happens in the story, (because, if you recall, I think GBH hotel deserves the actual Best Original Screenplay award) but because of what Linklater did to make the story relevant to moviegoers today. Just take a moment to think about what you'd put in a film right now that would still be incredibly relevant 10 years from now. 10 years! Think about it! I know I can't do it, but the pop culture references and the news of the day moments that were scattered throughout Boyhood not only made me feel incredibly nostalgic, but also helped me to know exactly where we were at any given time. And Linklater had to decide in the moment what to do. He had to decide in the moment what would be relevant 5, 10, and 12 years down the road. That.....that to me is incredible. And that's why I think Boyhood deserves to win Best Picture. Even though, mind you, it is not my favorite movie of the year. That goes to Whiplash. However, the little indie film that premiered waaaay back at Sundance last January has nooooo chance of grabbing the Best Picture award. (It's currently going 125-1 in Vegas.) I was impressed that it was even nominated. That, to me, is good enough for Whiplash, as being nominated for the award has definitely helped to raise awareness for the film and get butts in the seats. I'm just being realistic in this category. And Boyhood is EASILY my second favorite film of the year, so I'd be more than happy to see it win. Go Boyhood!

Well, there you have it! My 2015 Oscar predictions! Thanks for reading, guys. Seriously. I love you. This has taken me about 7 hours to write, but it was worth it. Now onto the rest of my lists....anyway, I'll see ya on Oscar Sunday!

Photo Credits
http://dubeat.com/wp-content/uploads/oscar.jpg (cover photo)
http://image.tmdb.org/t/p/original/gPZ6dO8cKCahCjJJvk5UhUBTJ9N.jpg (GBH poster)
http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51wq6VXHpRL._SY355_.jpg (Whiplash poster)
http://pulpepic.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2014/06/darn_of_the_planet_of_the_apes-intl_poster.jpg (Dawn poster)
http://ia.media-imdb.com/images/M/MV5BMTkxNzI3ODI4Nl5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTgwMjkwMjY4MjE@._V1_SX640_SY720_.jpg ('Murica)
http://thephonecallfilm.com/img/poster-phonecall.jpg (The Phone Call)
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/3e/8b/27/3e8b27f3351d7553d22b492cf1761ced.jpg (Feast)
http://ia.media-imdb.com/images/M/MV5BODMxNjAwODA2Ml5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTgwMzc0NjgzMzE@._V1_SX214_AL_.jpg (Selma)
http://1.media.dorkly.cvcdn.com/26/95/18b149286ca6f2920e017bd5d2ffcbf5.jpg (Guardians of the Galaxy)
http://www.mediaandconflict.co.uk/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/leviathan_xlg.jpg (Leviathan)
http://ia.media-imdb.com/images/M/MV5BNjgxOTcxMDA4Ml5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTgwOTE5MTc4MTE@._V1_SY317_CR1,0,214,317_AL_.jpg (Crisis)
http://www.circlecinema.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/citizenfour-poster.jpeg (Citizenfour)
http://pixel.nymag.com/content/dam/daily/vulture/2014/09/25/birdman-click.jpg (Birdman)
http://cdn.collider.com/wp-content/uploads/big-hero-6-poster-baymax-hi-res.jpg (Big Hero 6)
http://media2.popsugar-assets.com/files/2014/07/02/019/n/1922283/8837fd6e3e972bc5_thumb_temp_image23875021404340817.preview_tall/i/Patricia-Arquette-Interview-About-Boyhood.jpg (Patricia Arquette)
http://www.eonline.com/resize/500/500//eol_images/Entire_Site/2014115/cr_300x300-141205110051-1024.jk-simmons-whiplash.jpg (J.K. Simmons)
http://media1.popsugar-assets.com/files/2013/10/19/858/n/1922398/1668ed5324ed9d69_thumb_temp322009941382210328.xxxlarge/i/Reese-Witherspoon-Filming-Wild-Pictures.jpg (Reese Witherspoon)
http://www.gossipcop.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/Birdman.png (Michael Keaton)
http://cdn.collider.com/wp-content/uploads/boyhood-richard-linklater2.jpg (Richard Linklater)
http://www.moustachemagazine.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/boyhood-poster.jpg (Boyhood)